• Welspun Operates Solely On Fixed-price Contracts
• Welspun Maintains Strong Partnerships With US Steel Producers
• Demand Is Massive And Currently On The Drawing Board
• With Our Strong Positioning In Saudi Arabia, Only A Matter Of Time Before Orders Materialise
• Strong Order Inflows Are Expected Later This Year

Welspun Corp surges 7% on it’s largest-ever orde win, stock up 15% this week

Data Patterns Bags Order Worth Rs 585.76 Cr From BEL For Procurement Of Radar Electronics

Market opens flat, Nifty above 24,250

• Prabha Narasimhan Resigns As MD & CEO Of Co w.e.f Sep 27, 2026
• Manish Anandani Appointed As MD & CEO Of C For 5 Years w.e.f Sep 28, 2026
• Alert: Anandani joins us from Kenvue (erstwhile Johnson & Johnson Consumer Health) where he was the Managing Director for India and South Asia
• Alert: Prabha Narasimhan Is Promoted As Exec VP-Marketing, Asia-Pacific

• Buy, TP Rs 338
• Investor day takeaways
• Focus on stepping up growth
• Innovation, premiumisation & expansion into new categories to drive growth
• Management shared its next three-year/five-year vision targeting a 13%-15% revenue CAGR, in which share of new businesses will be 15%/20% with exit EBITDA
• margins of 11-12%/12%+ by FY29E/31E
• Capex guidance (over FY31E) was also higher at Rs1.2bn p.a. (Rs0.8bn FY26), excluding greenfield plant investment of Rs3.5bn

• Buy TP Rs 990
• Co has notified exchanges that it has been included in Approved Vendor category of Indian Railways for supply of traction motor for locomotives
• Estimate 4-5% annual revenue accretion from order
• More importantly, believe, order paves way for co’s plans to move up technology value chain through backward integration.

• Initiate Buy, TP Rs 1050
• Anthem is a high-growth Indian CRDMO with industry-leading manufacturing capabilities and a technocrat-led mgmt team.
• It boasts highest EBITDA margin (40%) & ROCE (25%) among Indian CRDMOs and is one of few players with complex fermentation-based peptide capabilities
• Expect Anthem to deliver FY26-29E Revenue/PAT CAGR of 18%/20%, driven by scale-up of existing contracts & robust late phase projects pipeline.

Here’s a list of stocks that are in focus going into trade today

Here’s how the global market cues are placed this morning

Here’s how the global market cues are placed this morning

• Initiate Buy, TP Rs 180
• UC is India’s largest online home services platform with 8.4mn users, 59k service providers & net transaction value (NTV) of Rs43bn in FY26, which see growing at a 32% CAGR to cRs100bn by FY29
• Not only is India’s online home services market entering its “Blinkit” moment, believe UC is at forefront of this evolution given:

1. right product-market fit (developed over multiple iterations),
2. strong balance sheet;

• execution track record with a clear focus on unit economics
• Stock trades at 40x FY29e EV/adjusted EBITDA (excl InstaHelp losses); believe market is not fully appreciating India home services’ growth acceleration due to above flywheel and InstaHelp’s breakeven, which expect earlier than co’s target

• Sell, TP Rs 5250
• Analyst meet takeaways
• Continues to guide to 20-25% revenue CAGR over FY2025-30
• Management retains a confident outlook for pharma CDMO & sees advanced materials scaling up to Rs14 bn of revenues by FY2035, while acknowledging near-term oversupply concerns in Indian R32 market
• Management expects capex of Rs7 bn in FY2027, followed by Rs7-10 bn annually during FY2028-29.
• Future capital allocation is expected to exhibit a greater bias toward advanced materials because of the segment’s niche positioning and superior margin profile, despite relatively lower asset turns compared with some of the company’s existing businesses
• If Chemours elects to proceed with a larger-scale expansion, associated capex could be substantial and management would then need to evaluate the optimal financing structure.
• Such an expansion is expected to contribute meaningfully to revenues beginning in FY2031-32.

• Initiate OW. TP Rs 1525
• Adani Green is India’s leading clean energy platform, combining strong execution at scale across clean technologies, improving portfolio quality that supports better cash flow, & returns
• visibility, with one of strongest capacity & earnings growth profiles in sector
• Base case assumes contracted RE capacity reaches 38GW by F31 from 20.1GW today, while contracted storage scales to 49GWh (39GWh BESS; 1.8GW pumped storage)
• Value AGEL at 12.5x F31e EV/EBITDA, justified by its scale, execution, storage-led evolution, & superior growth
• Forecast 49% EPS CAGR, F26-31e, and ~14% RoCE by F31e.
• Key Downside Risks:
• slower DC buildout and consequently slower C&I contracting;
• slippages in RE/storage build-out or Khavda evacuation delays
• reduced access to low-cost capital.

• Buy, TP Rs 338
• Investor day takeaways
• Focus on stepping up growth
• Innovation, premiumisation & expansion into new categories to drive growth
• Management shared its next three-year/five-year vision targeting a 13%-15% revenue CAGR, in which share of new businesses will be 15%/20% with exit EBITDA
• margins of 11-12%/12%+ by FY29E/31E
• Capex guidance (over FY31E) was also higher at Rs1.2bn p.a. (Rs0.8bn FY26), excluding greenfield plant investment of Rs3.5bn

• Buy TP Rs 330
• investor meet highlighted its growth outlook i.e 2x sales in 5-Y, with OPM at 11-12%.
• JEFe is lower at 12% sales CAGR & 10-11% OPM
• Premium Fans mix rose to 25% now (15% 5-Y ago).
• Solar and Wires are new products.
• Capex at Rs3.5bn for new Fans facility.
• Avg 14% price hikes in lead categories in last 1-Y
• Est FY26-29e EPS CAGR at +18% vs +1% CAGR in FY20-26.
• Stock is down -23% in 1Y & now trades at 24x 1-Y fwd PE, 30% below its hist avg.

• Buy, TP Rs 770
• Given strong LME zinc prices (& hence expected earnings), HZ’s relative underperformance is surprising
• Weakness in silver & potential government sell down likely weighed on stock
• LME zinc prices have risen 18.5% YTD & have outpaced other base metals like copper (+12.6%) & aluminum (+7.5%)
• Silver prices have likely bottomed & are up 11.9% in past month.
• INR weakness (-6.1% YTD) and strong sulfuric acid prices all point to a very strong operating environment for HZ.
• At spot commodity prices, implied HZ EBITDA is at INR341bn with EPS of INR54 for FY28e vs consensus estimates of INR280bn and
• INR43, respectively.
• At spot LME, HZ is trading at 6.5x FY28e EV/EBITDA
• Historically HZ has had a high dividend payout, averaged at 73% over past three years.

• Initiate OW on IIFL Fin – TP Rs 750
• Initiate OW on Muthoot Fin – TP Rs 3400
• Initiate OW on Manappuram Fin – TP Rs 395
• IIFL, preferred pick, is in early stages of a turnaround & should re-rate on higher profitability; while Muthoot’s YTD underperformance offers a compelling entry point
• Manappuram’s turnaround has just begun, with 1Q27 print a confirmation
• Gold loans in India are secured retail credit with robust growth (65% 2Y CAGR), & next phase of growth should be structural rather than cyclical
• Gold loans’ share of system credit could reach 10% over next 5Y from 2%/5% as of FY24/26
• Driver is a multi-year cultural shift, as gold evolves from a family heirloom to a monetizable asset
• This is moving borrower preference from unsecured & small business loans towards gold, facilitated by rising financial literacy of borrowers & reduced risk appetite of lenders
• Borrowers benefit from a 300-600bps rate arbitrage, while lenders grow a low-risk secured book
• Gold loan penetration remains low despite recent surge, with only 11% of bottom-60% household gold collateralised
• Competition is intensifying, but high barriers to entry (TAT, distribution, branch network) should protect incumbents’ profitability.
• JPM commodities team forecasts gold at $5k/oz by end-2027 (11% upside) which bodes well for gold-NBFCs, given high correlation of 90-95% between gold and stock prices (ex-IIFL)

• U-P, TP cut to Rs 430 from Rs 610
• Revolver-led credit card model is undergoing a structural disruption, with little evidence that pressure is easing, let alone reversing.
• SBI Cards, as a pure-play credit card issuer, has borne brunt of this shift
• Continue to see downside risk from further declines in revolvers-to-spends ratio, which should keep NIMs & earnings growth under pressure despite improving credit costs
• Accordingly, revise EPS estimates lower, leaving us 19% & 28% below consensus in FY28E & FY29E
• For SBI Cards, decline in revolvers-to-spends ratio (from 7% in 2019 to 2.8% in 1Q27) has translated into a sharp reduction in profit generated per unit of spends
• Importantly, fall in revolvers has not been offset by growth in EMI loans, as EMI balances-to-spends ratio has also declined
• While company has limited the earnings impact through lower operating expenses, this has now started to impact the fees/non-interest income-to-spends ratio.

GIFTNifty flat, indicates a muted start for the Indian market

• Private banks in India have de-rated over past five years despite a supportive macro backdrop, reflecting three structural headwinds: slower deposit growth, compression in risk spreads, & a more challenging operating environment
• These pressures have weighed on growth, constrained capital consumption, & diluted RoEs
• Expect them to persist, making deeper customer wallet share penetration, expansion into higher-margin commercial retail segments, & operating leverage increasingly critical to sustain profitability
• Believe a sustained re-rating hinges on loan growth reviving to 1.5-2.0x nominal GDP alongside improving profitability.
• Favor ICICI for its relatively early start to customer-centric approach, superior organizational structure, & multipurpose branch ecosystem
• Kotak, offers strongest turnaround potential, with access to multiple high-margin profit pools across banking, capital markets, asset management, and insurance.
• HDFC Bank pioneered ecosystem banking in India, though its scale limits meaningful risk-spread expansion from loan mix shifts.
• Axis is catching up on the transformation.

TRADE SET UP

• Brent Oil @ $93
• U.S. vows toughest sanctions on Iran, urges China to back move
• U.S. equities slid; SPX -0.87%, Nasdaq -0.70%
• Bond yields climbed once again !
• UST 10y yields added 6 bps to 4.71%
• UST 30y yields added 6 bps to 5.25%
• U.S. Treasury Secy Bessent: “Anything that happens within a 24-hour period is noise”
• U.S. Treasury Secy Bessent: “We have a big toolkit, so we’ll see…”
• U.S. Treasury Secy Bessent: “We are announcing probably at the end of this week, beginning of next week, an increased focus on fiscal consolidation”
• Walmart shares fell 9% after posting weakest qtrly showing in over 6 years
• Walmart CFO said lower-income shoppers making “choices between necessities”
• Nifty has immediate support at 24,200 & then 24,086
• Nifty resistance at 24,340

On Thursday, August 20, Nifty ended its seven-session decline, gaining 153 points (0.64%) to close at 24,231. The index opened the day 147 points higher and maintained its strength during the first half of the session, although it pared some of its gains due to profit booking.

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The markets retained their gains throughout the Sensex expiry session, successfully rebounding after seven consecutive sessions of losses. The Nifty increased by more than 100 points, approaching 24,200, while the Nifty Bank experienced a rise of over 340 points. Shriram Finance, Infosys, and Eternal emerged as the leading gainers.

Stock Market Highlights

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