Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola.
\n\nDemocrats are on course to secure another major victory in Alaska, with former congresswoman Mary Peltola likely to win the state's Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis. Peltola has gradually widened her narrow lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan as more votes have been counted this week.
\n\nThe NBC News Decision Desk's decision to classify the race as "likely" means it has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win. Alaska is the only remaining Senate contest from the 2026 midterm elections that the network has yet to project.
\n\nIf Peltola's victory is confirmed, Democrats will hold a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.
\n\nThe race has remained uncalled more than a week after Election Day as officials continue to count ballots. Alaska has a large number of mail-in voters, and ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted if they arrive by 13 November. A later deadline applies to valid overseas ballots.
\n\nThe remaining votes are particularly significant because of the narrow margin between the candidates and Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.
\n\nUnder the system, if no candidate secures a majority in the first round, the candidate with the…
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