President Donald Trump dances after speaking during a visit, Friday, May 1, 2026, in The Villages, Fla.
\n\nScroll past the House and Senate odds on Polymarket and a second election comes into view. Will Idaho legalise abortion? Will Alaska scrap ranked-choice voting? Will California make its 200-odd billionaires hand over 5 per cent of their fortunes? On Tuesday, 3 November, America votes on all of it. The headline markets look settled. On the same board, as of October 26, traders give the Democrats a 92 per cent chance of winning the House and 65 per cent for the Senate. The referendums are a different matter. This is where the midterms get personal, covering taxes, bodies and ballots, and here the bettors are more divided and often standing on much thinner ice.
\n\nStart with the only referendum market on the board carrying serious money. About $4 million has been traded on California’s Proposition 40, and traders put a 76 per cent chance on it failing.
\n\nThat is strange, because the polls point the other way. A Public Policy Institute of California survey in September found 52 per cent of likely voters backing the one-time 5 per cent tax on billionaires’ wealth…
Original source: https://www.timesnownews.com/world
