The struggle for influence over the Strait of Hormuz has become a central issue in the conflict between Iran and the United States, with both sides claiming to hold the advantage. But recent shipping data suggests the balance may be shifting.

According to Kpler, a maritime analytics company that tracks vessels using transponders and satellite data, more than 80% of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have used the Omani shipping route, a UN-authorised channel that Iran has opposed.

Iran has declared the strait to be under its control and has attacked dozens of vessels attempting to travel through waters near the Omani coast. Despite those risks, many ships have continued to use the route, relying on protection from US naval forces operating in the area. “It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN.

Shipping Patterns Change

The latest figures contrast sharply with conditions a month ago, when Kpler reported almost no traffic using the Omani route.

The reduction in traffic along routes preferred by Iran has also affected Tehran’s ability to collect transit tolls from vessels passing through the waterway, according to analysts.

The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran expired this week, theoretically allowing Iran to resume collecting such fees. However, Kpler’s data suggests that has not happened.

“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, told CNN. “So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”

According to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increasingly relied on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz before transferring cargoes to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman.

Some ships have switched off their tracking transponders for extended periods in an effort to avoid attacks, making them harder to monitor through conventional tracking systems.

Competing Claims

The United States has maintained a significant naval presence in the region and says oil shipments through and around the Strait of Hormuz have remained higher than some commercial estimates suggest.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that combined oil flows through the strait and via alternative routes averaged about 15 million barrels per day over a seven-day period, approaching the roughly 20 million barrels per day seen before the war.

The figures prompted US President Donald Trump to declare on Monday that the United States had “total control over the strait”, a claim he has repeated several times during the conflict.

However, analysts caution that the situation is more complex.

Iran continues to launch attacks in the area and oil flows remain below pre-war levels, suggesting Washington does not exercise complete control over the waterway.

At the same time, experts say Iran’s influence appears weaker than it was earlier in the conflict. “If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” Pickering told CNN. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”

Talks Underway

The situation may become more complicated as Oman and Iran hold discussions aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz without direct US involvement.

The outcome of those talks remains uncertain, and it is not yet clear what effect they may have on shipping flows or control of the strategic waterway.

“I would take all the information and headlines ‘under advisement,'” Lipow told CNN. “But it is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait.”