Gupta made the comments while delivering a lecture titled ‘Indian economy: Shocks, resilience and the way forward’ at the Madras School of Economics. Her assessment comes against the backdrop of several challenges, including volatility in oil prices, tariff-related pressures, elevated global uncertainty and the risk of a shortfall in rainfall.

RBI Deputy Governor Sees Growth Beating 6.7 per cent

Gupta said the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience despite repeated shocks and changing global conditions. She indicated that the RBI’s current 6.7 per cent growth estimate could ultimately prove conservative if recent economic trends continue.

“My expectation is that 2027 would be a benign year for policymakers. While we have projected growth at 6.7 per cent this year, it is quite likely that the numbers may turn out to be better, based on high-frequency indicators and analysis. Going forward, notwithstanding the shock rhythm here and the growth seen in recent years, I would say 7.5 per cent is a given, and we should aspire to do better than that,” she said.

The comments signal confidence that the economy can maintain its momentum even as businesses and policymakers navigate a challenging international environment.

However, Gupta’s assessment suggests that the impact of these risks may not be enough to derail India’s broader growth trajectory. The strength of recent high-frequency indicators has emerged as an important factor behind the more optimistic outlook.

She also pointed to an improving external position, saying, “The balance of payments (BoP) is likely to be much more conducive as well.”

India’s Debt Position Seen Improving

Gupta also highlighted India’s fiscal position in comparison with advanced economies. Citing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) publication, she noted that debt levels in developed economies are expected to rise significantly over the coming years.

According to the figures she cited, the debt-to-GDP ratio of advanced economies is projected to increase from 108 per cent in 2026 to 115 per cent by 2031. India, meanwhile, is expected to move in the opposite direction, with its debt-to-GDP ratio projected to decline from 83 per cent in 2026 to 78 per cent over the same period.

The contrast underlines the relatively stronger fiscal trajectory expected for India compared with advanced economies.

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