Samsung Electronics Co will regain the top position in the smartphone market this year, in a sign of its greater resilience to higher memory-chip prices, Counterpoint Research predicted.

The memory supply crunch has gotten worse over the course of this year and Counterpoint now expects a 14.3% decline in global phone unit shipments for 2026, with Chinese manufacturers taking the brunt of it. Samsung, with its highly integrated supply chain and mature distribution network, is an exception with an expected 0.8% growth, putting it just ahead of Apple Inc.

The broader market is set to decline again in 2027 before recovering the year after, Counterpoint said. Apple, like Samsung, is expected to be resilient to the pricing pressures brought on by more expensive components, but the researchers take a more cautious outlook with the iPhone maker. Outside of Samsung, only China’s Huawei Technologies Co., which has built up its own hardware supply because of US sanctions, is expected to sustain significant growth.

“Samsung’s return to the top position comes down to its internal component capabilities, broad portfolio and established operator and retail relationships,” said Yang Wang, Counterpoint’s principal analyst. “Leading Chinese smartphone manufacturers are expected to experience substantially greater shipment pressure. Accelerating industry consolidation continues to be Counterpoint’s baseline scenario through the down cycle.”

Among the brands most exposed to price-sensitive market segments, Wang expects drops in shipments of as much as 34%. Oppo this summer started to curtail its OnePlus brand, which had been a rare example of a Chinese name that broke through into the US market — thanks to aggressive pricing. Peers like Xiaomi Corp., Vivo and Honor Device Co. are all reorganizing their portfolios and developing more premium models that can better absorb the higher costs of essential components.

Novel artificial intelligence features and the widely expected foldable iPhone from Apple this year are not seen as likely triggers for a major upgrade wave.

“Foldables and on-device AI should support product differentiation and premiumization but are not expected to create a broad shipment supercycle,” Wang said.

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