Texas and Iowa haven’t been competitive for Senate seats in a generation. That’s changing fast. The Cook Political Report moved both states’ Senate races into toss up territory on Thursday, according to Axios. It’s a shift that matters enormously for Democrats, who need to flip four seats to take back the majority. Getting there almost certainly means winning somewhere Republicans don’t expect to be playing defense.

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has spent years fending off scandal, is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the open seat. Recent polling gives Talarico a narrow lead. He’s also raising serious money, while Republican establishment figures have been notably slow to open their wallets for Paxton’s campaign, a sign of just how uneasy some in the party feel about his candidacy.

The governor’s race tells a related story. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, has drawn fire over his past backing of data centers, an issue that’s become a flashpoint as rural communities push back against them. Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa has leaned into that anger, casting Texas as a state with no real rules governing where and how these facilities get built.

Cook shifted the Texas governor’s race from solid Republican to just likely Republican. Not a toss up yet, but a clear signal of erosion.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is running to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, facing off against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Cook Political Report editor Jessica Taylor noted this week that Hinson is actually one of the GOP’s stronger recruits and is outperforming where Ernst likely would have landed, yet the broader political climate in Iowa remains rough for Republicans regardless.

The governor’s race is arguably the bigger surprise. Democratic state auditor Rob Sand leads Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn by five points, according to Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey data. Emerson’s executive director, Spencer Kimball, pointed to independent voters as the reason, saying they’re breaking toward Sand and driving his advantage. Taylor described the race as reflecting a genuine Democratic edge at the top of Iowa’s ticket, a notable statement given the state’s recent voting history.

Put simply, this is a bad political environment for Republicans right now, and Democrats appear to be capitalizing on it in places that haven’t been on the map in years.